By Carmen M. Reinhart
ESI Special Topics,
April 2004
Citing URL - http://www.esi-topics.com/fbp/2004/april04-CarmenMReinhart.html
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Carmen M. Reinhart answers a
few questions about this month's fast breaking paper in the field of
Economics & Business.
From
•>>April 2004
Field:
Economics & Business
Article Title: Fear of floating
Authors: Calvo, GA;Reinhart, CM
Journal: QUART J ECON
Volume: 117
Page: 379-408
Year: MAY 2002
* Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
* Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA.
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Why
do you think your paper is highly cited?
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“The paper presents compelling evidence that actual policies can systematically be very different from those that are announced by governments and central banks.”
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For a variety of reasons. First, the empirical part of the
study covers countries in all regions, so international or macro
economists in Korea, for example, may be just as interested in
the issue as their counterparts in Peru. For theorists, Fear
of Floating presents sets of empirical regularities or
stylized facts that call out for more than one explanation. For
policymakers across many parts of the world or multilateral
institutions like the International Monetary Fund, it is a
practical matter that they have to confront when conducting or
designing monetary/exchange rate policy.
Could
you summarize the significance of your paper in layman's terms?
The paper presents compelling evidence that actual policies
can systematically be very different from those that are
announced by governments and central banks. Specifically, when
it comes to the exchange rate, many countries, irrespective of
whether they are advanced wealthy economies or struggling
developing ones have shown considerable Fear of Floating.
Policymakers may claim that they are allowing the exchange rate
to fluctuate freely and be determined by market forces, but more
often than not the data do not support these claims. The paper
also discusses various reasons and presents a model to explain
the phenomenon of Fear of Floating.
How
did you become involved in this research?
Prior to becoming an academic, I worked for several years as
an economist at the International Monetary Fund (my coauthor
Guillermo Calvo was also there at the time). There I began to
discern what can be best described as anecdotal evidence of Fear
of Floating. For instance, prior to its December 1994
currency crisis, Mexico—in principle—had an ever-widening
exchange rate band, which should have yielded greater exchange
rate flexibility, when in practice the central bank was keeping
the dollar/peso exchange rate fixed. Similarly, many of the
Asian economies, while declaring that their exchange rates were
floating, were in fact also keeping their exchange rates fixed
relative to the US dollar. These observations called for a
systematic investigation of whether Fear of Floating was
a more pervasive phenomenon.
Carmen Reinhardt, Professor
School of Public Affairs and
Department of Economics
University of Maryland
College Park, Maryland, US A
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ESI Special Topics,
April 2004
Citing URL - http://www.esi-topics.com/fbp/2004/april04-CarmenMReinhart.html
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