Fast Breaking Comment by Chris D. Thomas

Chris D. Thomas answers a few questions about this month's fast breaking paper in the field of Environment/Ecology.

From •>>October 2004

Field: Environment/Ecology
Article Title: Extinction risk from climate change
Authors: Thomas, CD;Cameron, A;Green, RE;Bakkenes, M;Beaumont, LJ;Collingham, YC;Erasmus, BFN;de Siqueira, MF;Grainger, A;Hannah, L;Hughes, L;Huntley, B;van Jaarsveld, AS;Midgley, GF;Miles, L;Ortega-Huerta, MA;Peterson, AT;Phillips, OL;Williams, SE
Journal: NATURE
Volume: 427
Page: 145-148
Year: JAN 8 2004
* Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
* Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
* Royal Soc Protect Birds, Sandy SG19 2DL, Beds, England.
* Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Conservat Biol Grp, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England.
* Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
* Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia.
* Univ Durham, Sch Biol & Biomed Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England.
* Univ Witwatersrand, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa.
* Ctr Referencia Informacao Ambiental, BR-13083885 Campinas, SP, Brazil.
* Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
* Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC 20036 USA.
* Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Zool, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa.
* Natl Bot Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, Climate Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa.
* Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Unidad Occidente, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico.
* Univ Kansas, Museum Nat Hist, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA.
* Univ Kansas, Biodivers Res Ctr, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA.
* James Cook Univ N Queensland, Sch Trop Biol, Cooperat Res Ctr Trop Rainforest Ecol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.

Why do you think your paper is highly cited?

“We showed that it is possible to tackle the question "what proportion of species might become extinct as a result of climate change...”

This paper attempts to quantify a major environmental crisis—that climate change may drive a substantial percentage of species to extinction. While this has been mentioned by previous papers, this is the first paper to tackle the issue head on. Our preliminary conclusions have surprised a lot of people.

Does it describe a new discovery or a new methodology that's useful to others?

The approach we developed is probably the key advance. We showed that it is possible to tackle the question "what proportion of species might become extinct as a result of climate change" through a series of logical steps involving a set of analyses and simulations, each of which can be improved in the future or even replaced by a better method. We hope that our paper will spur others on to achieve these improvements.

Could you summarize the significance of your paper in layman's terms?

Climate change may drive approximately 10% to 40% of species to extinction because they either will not have anywhere climatically suitable to live in future, or because they will not be able to cross human-dominated landscapes to reach areas that will be suitable.

How did you become involved in this research?

It came about initially, by my realizing that a substantial proportion of the British butterfly species on which I had been working—the Orange Tip butterfly (Anthocharis cardamines)—were shifting their distributions northwards.

Chris D. Thomas
Professor of Conservation Biology
Department of Biology
University of York
York, UK

ESI Special Topics, October 2004
Citing URL - http://www.esi-topics.com/fbp/2004/october04-ChrisThomas.html