Peacekeeping operations to civil war-torn countries with low state capabilities are likely to fail unless "peacekeeping" becomes successful state building. Where civil war was caused by, or facilitated the destruction of central government institutions, mediating social and policy differences among different groups may be insufficient to bring about a viable peace.

The remarkable spread of persistent civil war in the poorest countries of the world has had little to do with ethnic demographics, religious hatreds, economic inequality, dependence on primary commodity exports, or even absence of political rights. Instead, it mainly reflects the success of a set of military techniques—rural guerrilla warfare—in poor countries whose state administrative and police capabilities are weak and underdeveloped. The best predictors of a higher probability of civil war onset are low per capita income, a large population, recent independence, mountainous terrain, oil production, and recent change in the level of democracy.