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ESI Special Topics, July 2007
Citing URL: http://www.esi-topics.com/fmf/2007/july07-ThorneLay.html

From •>>JULY 2007

Thorne LayThorne Lay answers a few questions about this July's fast moving front in the field of Geosciences. The author has also sent along images of their work. 


Field: Geosciences
Article: The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004
Authors: Lay, T;Kanamori, H;Ammon, CJ;Nettles, M;Ward, SN;Aster, RC;Beck, SL;Bilek, SL;Brudzinski, MR;Butler, R;DeShon, HR;Ekstrom, G;Satake, K;Sipkin, S
Journal: SCIENCE, 308 (5725): 1127-1133 MAY 20 2005
Addresses:
Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Earth Sci, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA.
Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Earth Sci, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA.
Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Inst Geophys & Planetary Phys, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA.
CALTECH, Seismol Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA.
Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
New Mexico Inst Min & Technol, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Socorro, NM 87801 USA.
New Mexico Inst Min & Technol, Geophys Res Ctr, Socorro, NM 87801 USA.
Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA.
Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geol & Geophys, Madison, WI 53706 USA.
Miami Univ, Dept Geol, Oxford, OH 45056 USA.
IRIS Consortium, Washington, DC 20005 USA.
Geol Survey Japan, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058567, Japan.
US Geol Survey, Natl Earthquake Informat Ctr, Golden, CO 80401 USA.


   Why do you think your paper is highly cited?


“This paper is highly cited because it was a rapid analysis of the most devastating natural disaster to occur for many decades, with over 225,000 people losing their lives in the tsunami produced by the great earthquake.”


This paper is highly cited because it was a rapid analysis of the most devastating natural disaster to occur for many decades, with over 225,000 people losing their lives in the tsunami produced by the great earthquake. A large number of scientists in the global seismological community worked together under my leadership to quantify the earthquake faulting that caused this disaster.

   Does it describe a new discovery, methodology, or synthesis of knowledge?

This was an analysis using many seismological tools to study the event, but the nature of the earthquake required all procedures to be adapted to the special circumstances of the longest length and duration faulting we have ever recorded.

   Would you summarize the significance of your paper in layman’s terms?

The paper determined how the fault along the Sumatra-Nicobar-Andaman subduction zone ruptured. We determined how much the fault slipped and how variable the slip was as a function of space and time.

We did this by modeling seismic waves recorded around the world and by modeling tsunami signals recorded by a satellite measuring ocean altitude variations. The fault slipped an average of about 10 m over a length of 1300 km and a width of 150-250 km.

   How did you become involved in this research, and were there any particular problems encountered along the way?

I became involved in the earthquake after the first reports of tsunami deaths came in on the day after Christmas in 2004. Examining the seismic recordings available on the web, I quickly realized this was the largest earthquake of the past 40 years, and anticipated that the early death and damage estimates were underestimates.

Over the next week or so the magnitude of the disaster was recognized, and it was apparent to me that seismology should quantify what had happened to inform policy makers and to guide future hazard mitigation efforts like a tsunami warning system. So, in my capacity as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, I contacted many members of the global seismological community and asked them to collaborate rather than to pursue individual isolated analyses. This ultimately led to 42 co-authors producing three major seismological papers published in a special section of Science in May 2005, remarkably soon after the event for such detailed quantification of the faulting.

We did encounter challenges in the analysis due to the great size, duration, and complexity of faulting, and all researchers had to modify their software to handle the particular nature of this event. Those modifications are in place and when the next great earthquake occurs we will be able to perform the corresponding analysis in hours rather than weeks.

   Where do you see your research leading in the future?

There will be more great earthquakes around the world and seismological analysis will be the key to understanding them. It also provides the basis for many earthquake forecasting and rapid warning procedures, including being an essential part of tsunami warning systems. Several countries are contributing to a new tsunami warning system for the Indian Ocean to complement the U.S. systems operating in the Pacific and Caribbean Oceans.

   Are there any social or political implications for your research?

Earthquake ruptures are a basic physical phenomenon that elicits great intellectual interest, but they can have huge societal impact, as did this event. The hazards resulting from large earthquakes are in the minds of all seismologists who study earthquake faulting, as we strive to understand the nature of earthquakes, so that we can better prepare and cope with their inevitable occurrence.End

Thorne Lay
Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences
University of California, Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz, CA, USA


A Closer Look...

A closer look... Below are images sent in by Thorne Lay which correspond with the featured paper, or current research.

Figure 1:

Figure 1:

Attached map figure shows the region struck by the great 2004 earthquake (magnitude 9.15) and the March aftershock (8.7).

All of the little beach balls are faulting geometries of the afteshocks along the 1300 km long fault.  

  

  

Figure 2:

Figure 2:

Estimates of how much slip occurred on the fault from the papers in Science.  

  

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ESI Special Topics, July 2007
Citing URL: http://www.esi-topics.com/fmf/2007/july07-ThorneLay.html

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