According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)1,
the Earth’s average surface air temperature has risen more than one
degree Fahrenheit since the late 19th century, and this
warming trend has been especially prevalent since the 1970s. NCAR’s
scientists point to many possible explanations for this trend, but the
main burden of global warming can be placed at the feet of humanity
and our burning of fossil fuels resulting in the release of greenhouse
gases. In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
predicted that the Earth’s temperatures in the future might increase
somewhere between 2.5 and 10.5°F from 1990 levels by the year 2100.
Considering that humans experience seasonal temperature changes
greater than this on a frequent basis, this figure may not seem like a
crisis; however, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency2,
"Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level, and
change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Changing
regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies.
It could also affect human health, animals, and many types of
ecosystems. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands, and features
of some of our National Parks may be permanently altered."
Four years ago, Special Topics examined global warming research.
This month, we revisit the topic to see what advances are now meriting
citations—both over the past decade and over the past two years. One
paper from our prior analysis is included in our current analysis:
"Increased activity of Northern vegetation inferred from
atmospheric CO2 measurements," (Keeling CD, Chin JFS, Whorf TP, Nature
382[6587]: 146-149, 11 July 1996). This paper ranked at #15 with 124
cites in the 2002 analysis, and in our current analysis, it ranks at
#3, with 280 cites.
The prevailing focus among the top 20 papers published in the last
decade is on ecological responses to climate change—both in animals
and in plants. Other studies include climate models, the effects of
climate change on natural atmospheric circulation phenomena—such as
the Arctic and Antarctic oscillations—carbon and nitrogen content in
soil, carbon in atmospheric aerosols, and, oddly enough, a paper
arguing that global warming is not driven by fossil fuel burning, CO2,
and aerosols at all.
The effects of climate change in plankton ecosystems, on the
frequency of tropical cyclones, on ecosystems carbon storage, and on
the Amazonian rain forests are all examined in the top 20 papers
published over the past two years. The possibility of mitigating
climate change at the soil level is discussed in two papers on this
list, as is the use of tree rings to measure temperature changes. Two
papers look at climate change in the Eocene and Permo-Triassic
periods, respectively.
Methodology
To construct this database,
papers were extracted based on topic-supplied keywords for
Global Warming. The keywords used were as follows:
global warming*
The baseline time span for this database
is 1996-2006 (second bimonthly: 1996-April 30, 2006). The resulting database contained
3,621 (10 years)
and 1,161 (2 years) papers; 8,503 authors; 100 countries; 1,038 journals; and
2,383 institutions.
Rankings
Once the database was in place,
it was used to generate the lists of top 20 papers (two- and ten-year
periods), authors, journals,
institutions, and nations, covering a time span of 1996-2006 (second
bimonthly: 1996-April 30, 2006).
The top 20 papers are ranked
according to total cites. Rankings for author, journal, institution,
and country are listed in three ways: according to total cites, total
papers, and total cites/paper. The paper thresholds and corresponding
percentages used to determine
scientist, institution, country, and journal rankings according to
total cites/paper, and total papers respectively are as follows:
|
Entity:
|
Scientists
|
Institutions
|
Countries
|
Journals
|
|
Thresholds:
|
6
|
26
|
5
|
8
|
|
Percentage:
|
1%
|
1%
|
50%
|
10%
|
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