The loss of habitat is the major threat to biodiversity. Many conservation planning exercises do not also include a spatial analysis of current and future habitat transformation. This is one of the first comprehensive studies to address some of these issues. Although we are still a long way from understanding spatial patterns of future habitat transformation, this provides a very useful basis for identifying conservation priorities and scheduling conservation actions.

  Does it describe a new discovery or a new methodology that's useful to others?

Not really, most of these methods have been previously used for other purposes. The methodology can, however, be applied to other areas.

In most countries, protected areas have been established on an ad-hoc basis, mostly in unproductive landscapes. Such systems of protected areas cannot ensure the protection of biodiversity for future generations as it does not capture the full biodiversity spectrum. Given the speed at which populations grow, conservation practitioners need to act fast in order to safeguard biodiversity. We suggested that conservation efforts should focus towards areas under future biodiversity threats (e.g. mining, agriculture, biological invasions). We were able to map areas likely to be impacted by future agriculture, urban development, or plant invasions. We combined this information with the distribution of broad habitat types to identify those most vulnerable, and therefore in need of urgent conservation actions.

I was doing my Ph.D. on the distribution of invasive species at the same time as this major conservation program, CAPE, was initiated.

Mathieu Rouget, Ph.D.
GIS Manager / Conservation Planning
Kirstenbosch Research Center
National Botanical Institute
Claremont, South Africa